Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Marina Halac • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: May, 2025, Volume 93, Issue 3

Making Subsidies Work: Rules versus Discretion

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21319
p. 747-778

Federico Cingano|Filippo Palomba|Paolo Pinotti|Enrico Rettore

We estimate the employment effects of a large program of public investment subsidies to private firms that ranked applicants on a score reflecting both objective rules and local politicians' discretion. Leveraging the rationing of funds as an ideal Regression Discontinuity Design, we characterize the heterogeneity of treatment effects and cost‐per‐new‐job across inframarginal firms and estimate the cost‐effectiveness of subsidies under factual and counterfactual allocations. Firms ranking high on objective rules and firms preferred by local politicians generated larger employment growth on average, but the latter did so at a higher cost per job. We estimate that relying only on objective criteria would reduce the cost per job by 11%, while relying only on political discretion would increase such cost by 42%.


Full Content

Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Making Subsidies Work: Rules vs. Discretion"

Federico Cingano, Filippo Palomba, Paolo Pinotti, and Enrico Rettore

This supplement contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "Making Subsidies Work: Rules vs. Discretion"

Federico Cingano, Filippo Palomba, Paolo Pinotti, and Enrico Rettore

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14868109. The authors were granted an exemption to publish parts of their data because either access to these data is restricted or the authors do not have the right to republish them. However, the authors included in the package, on top of the codes and the parts of the data that are not subject to the exemption, a simulated or synthetic dataset that allows running the codes. The Journal checked the data and the codes for their ability to generate all tables and figures in the paper and approved online appendices. Whenever the available data allowed, the Journal also checked for their ability to reproduce the results. However, the synthetic/simulated data are not designed to produce the same results.


Member Comments on "Making Subsidies Work: Rules versus Discretion"

Log In To Submit A Comment