Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Marina Halac • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: May, 2025, Volume 93, Issue 3

Insurance and Inequality with Persistent Private Information

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20404
p. 821-857

Alexander W. Bloedel|R. Vijay Krishna|Oksana Leukhina

We study the implications of optimal insurance provision for long‐run welfare and inequality in economies with persistent private information. A principal insures an agent whose private type follows an ergodic, finite‐state Markov chain. The optimal contract always induces immiseration: the agent's consumption and utility decrease without bound. Under positive serial correlation, it also backloads high‐powered incentives: the sensitivity of the agent's utility with respect to his reports increases without bound. These results extend—and help elucidate the limits of—the hallmark immiseration results for economies with i.i.d. private information. Numerically, we find that persistence yields faster immiseration, higher inequality, and novel short‐run distortions. Our analysis uses recursive methods for contracting with persistent types and allows for binding global incentive constraints.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Insurance and Inequality with Persistent Private Information"

Alexander W. Bloedel, R. Vijay Krishna, and Oksana Leukhina

In this Supplemental Appendix (henceforth SA), we prove Theorems 1 and 2 and associated results, and discuss Condition R.5. SA-C proves Theorem 1 and Proposition 4.4. SA-D proves Corollary 4.1. SA-E presents the proof of Theorem 2, an important step of which is proving Theorem 3(d). SA-F and SA-G collect facts about the first-best and pathwise properties of Markov chains, respectively. SA-H discusses Condition R.5. While this SA is mostly self-contained, some auxiliary results are proved in Bloedel, Krishna, and Leukhina (2024).

Supplement to "Insurance and Inequality with Persistent Private Information"

Alexander W. Bloedel, R. Vijay Krishna, and Oksana Leukhina

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14720557. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.


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