Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Marina Halac • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Sep, 2025, Volume 93, Issue 5

Can Trade Policy Mitigate Climate Change?

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20153
p. 1561-1599

Farid Farrokhi|Ahmad Lashkaripour

Trade policy is often cast as a solution to the free‐riding problem in international climate agreements. This paper examines the extent to which trade policy can deliver on this promise. We incorporate global supply chains of carbon and climate externalities into a multi‐country, multi‐industry general equilibrium trade model. By deriving theoretical formulas for optimal carbon and border taxes, we quantify the maximum efficacy of two trade policy solutions to the free‐riding problem. Adding optimal carbon border taxes to existing tariffs proves largely ineffective, delivering only 3.4% of what could be achieved under globally optimal carbon pricing. In contrast, Nordhaus's (2015) climate club framework, in which border taxes are used as contingent penalties to deter free‐riding, can achieve 33–68% of the globally optimal carbon reduction, depending on the initial coalition (EU, EU + US, or EU + US + China). In all cases, the climate club ensures universal compliance, thereby preserving free trade.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Can Trade Policy Mitigate Climate Change?"

Farid Farrokhi and Ahmad Lashkaripour

This supplement contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "Can Trade Policy Mitigate Climate Change?"

Farid Farrokhi and Ahmad Lashkaripour

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15531594. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.

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